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"democratic convention" by deacon31 on August 17, 2008, 9:47 pm, in category General Market
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election year seasonality enters a bad patch that coincides with the two worst months of any year(sept-oct), look for negative market reactions during the convention...stock indexes have been inverse to the crude/gold action, a commodity bounce might derail the light volume levitation we've been experiencing...us dollar seasonal is a high in mid-aug., then down all the way til end of year
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"boom boom on deck!" by deacon31 on August 3, 2008, 8:43 pm, in category General Market
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tuesday we should get the usual short covering ahead of fomc decision, then weird wollie and the usual pre op-ex week action...august usually begins poorly, then gathers strength mid-month, which would help the game plan of a poor close this week, then op-ex week blastoff...conditions will get thin this month and provide the bears a good chance to dunk this thing again---fear of osama, obama, and chelsea's momma
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"wamu battered on the ropes!" by deacon31 on July 27, 2008, 7:20 pm, in category General Market
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washington mutual credit default swaps now trading at same level as those of bear stearns when bear imploded:
(https://admin.minyanville.com/assets/FCK_Aug2007/File/7-25-big.jpg)
keep powder dry til wamu situation resolves
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"wollie takes a back seat" by deacon31 on July 20, 2008, 6:28 pm, in category General Market
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the week after july op-ex has had huge volatility in the stock market, gains over +3% in 2002 and 2006, and losses worse than -4% in 1998 and 2007...crude oil will be important, it closed on the 50% mark of the 109-147 range, and the theme has been 'when crude is up treasuries are up, and the dollar and stocks go down'
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"6 weeks in a row down!" by deacon31 on July 13, 2008, 8:03 pm, in category General Market
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RUT did close green on the week, and NASDAQ was only down -0.3%...weds. proved it's 'weird' moniker yet again! trying a buy on the gap fill monday as we couldn't be set up any better for an op-ex week blastoff...lot of catch up needed for INDU SPX to follow their 'july best month in 3Q' historical
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"weird wollie week!" by deacon31 on July 7, 2008, 8:27 am, in category General Market
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SPX has 3 bullish days in almanac this week.. COMPX still on it's 'mid-year +10% historical' thru this week, let's see if the bulls can mount a run off the bottoming dollar/topping crude oil...jan. and july were the most impt. turn months for wd gann
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"what gets ahead stays ahead!" by deacon31 on June 29, 2008, 7:37 pm, in category General Market
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the wall street bonus game plays to the leaders stay ahead tune, and the market seems oversold enough for the end of month long, so let's look to buy the early week low and see if wall street decides to save their system during the low volume days around the holiday: "The SPX gained 753 pts 1995-04, but buying the day before the last trading day of the month, and exited on the opening of the fifth trading day of the month (and you stayed out of the market the rest of the month), the gains were 8.....
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"1H '08 report card on deck!" by deacon31 on June 22, 2008, 7:19 pm, in category General
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the Q's behaved well, with the low of 47.00 around wollie to 49.01 late last thursday, otherwise the bears said no way you're getting 5 straight op-ex week blastoffs...buy the early week low for window dressing(indexes, big techs, materials, energy) and as the almanac states: 'On June 26 look for the 12-Day Midyear NASDAQ rally to commence.'
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"coming in low to op-ex week seems bullish" by deacon31 on June 15, 2008, 9:20 pm, in category General Market
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mcclellan OSS hit about -250 on wollie weds. and -200 thursday, so the low volume short squeeze the last 2 hours friday was a decent result...i'd like a pull back monday on a 60 min chart to buy for the usual op-ex week blastoff...june op-ex historical bullish and full moon 6/18(SPX hit 1440 last full moon)...
summer solstice to close the week seems perfect
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"weird wollie time!" by deacon31 on June 9, 2008, 9:23 am, in category General Market
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SPX moves over 1.5% each of the last two sessions seems to have trumped weird wollie, or is it a precusor...with the strong june seasonals it would be better to close this week poorly, and thus set up a blast off into the quad expiration...SPX hit 1440 last full moon, and next full is 6/17, with the solstice 6/20 being perfect for an op-ex week close
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